Sills, 13, Commits to USC

By Chris Le

Strike while the iron is hot.  Or do you strike when it’s young?

USC coach Lane Kiffin asks: What’s the difference?

As Kiffin wrapped up the top-rated recruiting class of 2010, he got a head start on 2015.  Yes, 2015.  That’s five years—half a decade!—from now.

On Thursday, 13-year-old David Sills was offered and accepted to play under Kiffin and the USC Trojans.  It is the earliest commitment in school history.

The precocious quarterback has remarkably refined mechanics (see video), a supposedly keen ability to read the field (he studies NFL film like a mini-me Peyton Manning) and—already standing 6’0—is physically advanced.

But a lot can happen in five years.  We could have a new (and more productive) president.  Another Summer Olympics will come and go.  One, maybe two more additions to the Fast and Furious franchise.  Hell, Kiffin, with his nomadism and past failures, might not even be at USC (no guarantee the new coach reaffirms the offer).  And Sills, by then with bass in his voice and descended testicles, could fade to oblivion, crumbling under the pressure of his early commitment to football’s premiere college program.  Recruiting, more so even than drafting or playing the stock market, is a fool’s science.  It’s hard enough evaluating an 18-year-old—and there have been innumerable busts—but who can honestly project the potential of a child?  Sills, for all we know, could go down in flames in a needlessly public manner.

Steve Clarkson, famed quarterbacks coach-for-the-stars, will try to prevent just that.  Clarkson, who introduced Kiffin to Sills, will put Sills through the same regimen as past mentees like Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Leinart, Jimmy Clausen and current USC QB Matt Barkley.

Early recruitment isn’t revolutionary.  It’s not even exclusive to football.  Class of 2007 basketball phenom Taylor King committed to UCLA and coach Ben Howland before playing a single high school game.  Fast-forward four years and by signing day, King switched his commitment from UCLA to Duke.  King subsequently transferred to Villanova after one year—fickle isn’t he?

But that’s what kids are: capricious.  They have the attention span of a hot dog.  So Sills’ decision, I think, is far from solid and his recruitment isn’t done by a longshot.

Let’s not forget: Sills only has a verbal offer and commitment.  Which, like a wedding proposal, means nothing until you walk down the aisle and then sign the marriage license—just ask Richard Jefferson.  Colleges cannot send an official offer until a prospect’s junior season.  Or in Sills’ case, four years from now.

As a USC fan, I’m disappointed.  With the whole Reggie Bush and Joe McKnight ordeal, the NCAA is already checking under our fingernails.  Controversy is already ruling the campus.  Why bring more?  Lane Kiffin is like a high school girl—he can’t avoid drama to save his life.

And it’s just dirty.  It’s robbery in a sense.  Robbery of a kid’s childhood and innocence in exchange for 15 minutes of bright lights and an uncertain future.

But early recruitment is a trend in waiting, as courtship becomes more competitive—being the first to offer scholarship goes a long way—and coaches try to one-up each other.  As ludicrous as it is, we better get used to it.

Midseason Awards

By Chris Le

The All-Star game is around the corner.  You know what that means: awards.

Biggest Surprise: The rookie class.  That it isn’t horrible is as unexpected as Tiger Woods turning out to be an adulterous nympho.  Talk about coming from left field.  Brandon Jennings went from spoiled brat to enigmatic pariah to being the next Allen Iverson (Trust me, that last one is a compliment).  Scouts were unsure of which position—point or shooting guard—to play Tyreke Evans, but he ends up being one of those indefinable players who “just knows how to play.”  Stephen Curry has dispelled the stigma of being too slow to play point and too small to score.  And Omri Casspi, who the hell saw him coming?  Keep in mind this is without Blake Griffin, who I think could be the best of the bunch.  The ’04 rookies it ain’t, but I’d stack Evans & Co. against most of the decade’s freshmen classes.

Ballot: 1.) The Rookie Class 2.) Zach Randolph not destroying but improving the Grizzlies 3.) Charlotte Bobcats

Biggest Disappointment: Injury of Greg Oden and Blake Griffin.

Two likeable big men.  Two worrisome injuries.

It’s hard not to be a fan of Oden.  One interview is all it takes to want to be his friend.  He’s light-hearted and naturally affable and equipped with a winning personality, even if his Trail Blazers aren’t.  Oden’s appeal is Shaq-like, except Oden doesn’t come off quite as oafish, not as childish.  That’s what makes Oden’s injury such a downer.  You want to like him, you want to see him succeed, but he hasn’t stayed healthy long enough to make a dent in the league, and this latest injury hints that he won’t—ever.  Oden now has nothing to do but take naked pictures of himself (link is SFW).

Griffin’s injury is a double-edged sword.  You feel for the kid—that his exploded knee (happened on a dunk in which he was untouched) threatens his athleticism, which is the basis of his entire game—but you also feel for the Clippers.  For a while, the Clips looked like a borderline playoff team.  Then, you imagined how good they’d be with the year’s best rookie.  Exhibit X that The Other Los Angeles Team is a star-crossed franchise.

John Wall better be careful because the number one pick is shaping up to be the NBA’s version of the Madden Curse.

Ballot: 1.) Greg Oden/Blake Griffin Injury 2.) Washington Wizards 3.) The Richard Jefferson trade 4.) New Jersey Nets (No way they should be 4-41—a pathetic .089 winning percentage.  Not with their talent.  I realize Devin Harris is overrated, but Brook Lopez is a budding All-Star center, Christopher Douglas-Roberts is a MIP candidate, and Yi Jianlian is displaying some legitimacy.)

Dunk of the Half: Wade on Varejao.  No explanation needed.  Just watch.

Ballot: 1.) Wade on Varejao, 2.) Delonte West on Josh Smith 3.) Derrick Rose on Greg Oden 4.) Will Bynum on Tyson Chandler

Defensive AND Intangible Player of the Half: Anderson Varejao, Cavs.  Aside from looking like Sideshow Bob, Varejao’s claim to fame is hustle.  And it’s not hustle for lack of talent a la Mark Madsen.  No, it’s hustle where it matters most.  It’s hustle to win games and for the genuine desire to make life easier for teammates.

Varejao is the guru of the “Stat-less” play—defense in the post, sealing off an opponent, taking a charge, dishing out a message-sending foul, diving for loose balls—you know, being the most annoying guy on the opposing team.  But Varejao’s inherent value to the Cavs, the effect of his intangibles once thought to be unquantifiable, can be measured in—irony of ironies—statistics.  Just don’t look to rudimentary box scores; doing so will only bring confusion because of his relatively unimpressive stats: 8.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.0 block, 1.0 steal.  Outside of watching the games, his worth is evident only in the deceptively simple On court/Off court category.  The Cavs are +15.6 when Varejao is playing, and -4.9 when he’s on the bench.  That’s all you need to know.  When Varejao is on the court wreaking hell, his team plays better than the opponent; when he’s sitting, they don’t.  His net points of +349 lead the league—that’s 24 points more than teammate and MVP candidate LeBron James.  Why?  It’s in large part because of his defense.

Ballot: 1.) Anderson Varejao, Cavs 2.) Dwight Howard, Magic 3.) Ron Artest, Lakers 4.) Josh Smith, Hawks

Rookie of the Half: Tyreke Evans, Kings.   Before the season started, I predicted this award would go to Blake Griffin.  Who was second on my ballot?  Tyreke Evans.  And since Griffin will sit out the season, he’s ineligible for ROY honors.  So I’m counting my preseason pick as a correct guess.

The uncertainty surrounding Evans’ game was baffling (I had him as the second best player in the draft).  I didn’t care if he played the point or the two—I just knew he could play.  Forget his height and physical ability—which are considerable—his court presence just screams Natural Feel for the Game.  He’s just savvy.  Evans doesn’t need a drawn-up play; he can create for himself and others on the fly.  He’s the athlete with an internal clock (like Peyton Maning) that tells him when to take over a game.  And did I mention he’s the best defensive rookie in the class?

Ballot: 1.) Tyreke Evans, Kings 2.) Brandon Jennings, Bucks 3.) DeJuan Blair, Spurs 4.) Stephen Curry, Warriors 5.) Omri Casspi, Kings

Coach of the Half: Lionel Hollins, Grizzlies.  Memphis sputtered out of the gates with a 1-8 start.  But once they dropped some dead weight (Allen Iverson, never a good fit), they’ve been steadily climbing the power rankings.  After the dismal start, the Grizz are 24-11 and now eyeing a playoff spot.  Let me say it again: this is the Memphis Grizzlies.  Not only that, it’s a Grizz team headlined by the Yoko Ono of the NBA: Zach Randolph.  Hollins pulled some voodoo and turned the once-cancerous Randolph into a team player, a defensive presence and a lead-by-example hustler.  That alone almost qualifies Hollins for sainthood.

Ballot: 1.) Lionel Hollins, Grizzlies 2.) Rick Adelman, Rockets 3.) Scott Brooks, Thunder 4.) Larry Brown, Bobcats

Sixth Man of the Half: Carl Landry, Rockets.  Landry is a tough son of a bitch.  He’s been shot in the leg and missed only 8 games.  He lost three teeth to Dirk Nowitzki’s elbow, but you wouldn’t have noticed it by watching the video.  He nonchalantly walked to the bench, looking bothered more by having to leave the game than by his toothless smile.  Kinda makes you feel like a wimp, huh?  It’s this toughness, along with Rick Adelman’s superb coaching, that motivates the hardest working team in the NBA.  No group hustles like Houston, and no team does more with less.

Landry’s physical toughness extends to the mental side, as evidenced by his 4^th quarter scoring.  His 301 points in the final quarter is second only to LeBron’s 322.  Wait, what?  Yup, as Houston’s go-to guy in the 4^th, Landry has been more prolific than Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Carmelo Anthony, et al.  Not bad for a third-year player who comes off the bench.

Ballot: 1.) Carl Landy, Rockets 2.) Jamal Crawford, Hawks 3.) Anderson Varejao, Cavs 4.) Jason Terry, Mavs 5.)  Al Harrington, Knicks

Most Improved Player: Joakim Noah, Bulls.  The MIP is an interesting award.  Year in and year out, it’s the hardest to determine.  There’s never a shortage of viable candidates, which is great for the league, but I find it doesn’t always go to the most improved player—in the truest sense of the term.  Instead, it goes to the player whose numbers get a big hike from increased minutes.  Player X, once a bench player behind an All-Star, is traded and now finds himself in the starting five.  Naturally, his numbers will climb but not as the result of any particular refinement to his game.  Like Channing Frye, who played 11.8 minutes in Portland behind Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge.  He comes to Phoenix and takes Shaq’s empty spot at center, starts and plays 29.8 minutes a game and sees a 7.9 jump in points.  Did he really improve?  Or is the point increase the natural result of minute inflation?  Probably both, but I’m giving more credence to the boosted playing time.

Joakim Noah is legitimately better than he was last year.  A Tasmanian Devil on defense (1.8 blocks and 0.7 steals), second in rebounding (12.2), improved scoring (11.4 points from 6.7) and a surprising 2.2 assists per game.  He’s pretty much the second coming of Varejao—tough as all hell, disruptive to the opponents and a pure energy source for his team.  Noah may have reached his ceiling, but he reached it with one huge and sudden jump.

Ballot: 1.) Joakim Noah, Bulls 2.) Carl Landry, Rockets 3.) Zach Randolph, Memphis 4.) Aaron Brooks, Rockets 5.) Kevin Durant, Thunder^*

^*Durant has been up for this award three years running.  How scary is that?  It’s kinda like Jamie Foxx’s run toward the top.  He went from successful comedian to Oscar-winning dramatic actor to Grammy nominee, before people started to realize he might be the most talented man in Hollywood.  Durant keeps on improving, showing you something you didn’t think he could do, and he just might end up the league’s preeminent force on the perimeter.  Has anyone ever been the MIP and MVP in the same season?  It’s possible with Durant.  Hopefully, he doesn’t turn into an insufferable malcontent like Foxx after winning the Oscar.

Most Valuable Player: LeBron James, Cavs.  It’s not often that the best player on the best team is also one of the most indispensable players in the league.  A top team prerequisite is at least three viable scoring options.  One dynamic player is insufficient in reaching the top record.  It’s all about talent and depth in the NBA.  So the best player on the best team isn’t completely necessary to be successful—he’s not the be-all and end-all.  Championship contention is impossible without a franchise player (‘04 Pistons aside), obviously, but they wouldn’t be bottom feeders either.  Does that make sense?  I’ll explain.  Here are two examples from opposite sides of the spectrum:

On one side is Chris Paul.  He redeems a wretched New Orleans Hornets.  Like a gorgeous face on a chunky body.  Their entire offense is pick-and-roll and lane penetration to open corner shots.  In other words, their entire offense is Chris Paul.  And he makes role players of journeymen and All-Stars of latent talent.  Without CP3, the Hornets would dissolve.  He is the epitome of value.  But his team won’t make any noise in the postseason.  He only checks off one category.

In the other corner is Kobe Bryant.  He’s got the most feared game in the league, but is he the most valuable?  Does Los Angeles sink without him?  I’m looking at the Lakers’ roster, and it’s talented enough—with help from the Zen Master, of course—to win 46-48 games and make the playoffs without Kobe.  Again, only one category.  Okay, one and a half categories—Kobe is pretty damn valuable and good for about 10-12 wins on his own.  He’s just not indispensable like LeBron.

LeBron is Cleveland’s everything.  He’s the game-managing quarterback and the deep-threat gunslinger when needed.  He’s the free safety who protects the perimeter and in transition.  And he’s the cheerleader.  All wrapped in one frighteningly evolved body.

No one bears a larger burden, and no one is better at making lemonade out of lemons.  His best sidekicks are (in this order) the currently injured Mo Williams; Anderson Varejao; Shaq, a defensive liability in the pick-and-roll and, let’s be honest, he just sucks on some nights; and either Z or Delonte West, who’s been trying to exorcise some personal demons.  Not an All-Star in the bunch.  And that’s the best team in the league?  That LeBron lifted the Cavs to 38-11—and is undefeated against Kobe, Kevin Durant, and Dwyane Wade—is a minor miracle.

It’s a mark of LeBron’s physical brilliance, but it can also be attributed to his demeanor.  LeBron might be the best teammate ever.  Would you doubt such a claim, especially seeing the way his team rallies behind him?  The way they fawn, like the lucky dork in high school who’s best friends with the prom king/quarterback because they grew up living next door.  They know they lucked out with the golden ticket, and they’re willing to kill in order to protect it.  (See: the LeBron and Wade duel on January 25.  On the critical play, Wade dishes a hard foul on LeBron, who lied motionless on the floor for minutes.  The entire squad came onto the court to support their fallen leader.  It was genuine.  Would Kobe clear the bench like that?  Nope.  By the way, in that game, LeBron also had the game-winning steal and free throws, which is a perfect microcosm of LeBron and his effect on the Cavaliers.  The way his teammates would go to war for him, and LeBron’s all-around game, not needing to score to alter his team’s fortune.)  He even has Shaq and his superego content being relegated to a tertiary role.

Take away LeBron and witness the implosion of the Cavaliers.  But imagine if the Cavs had as much talent as the Lakers?  Scary.  Still, even as is, LeBron is carrying his team to heights no one else can achieve.

Check and check.

Ballot: 1.) LeBron James, Cavs 2.) Kobe Bryant, Lakers 3.) Carmelo Anthony, Nuggets 4.) Kevin Durant, Thunder 5.) Dirk Nowitzki, Mavs

Kobe in the Clutch

By Chris Le

On December 16, 2009, Kobe Bryant nailed a clock-beating jumper in overtime to defeat the Milwaukee Bucks 107-106.

It was an example of what is—at this point in his legacy—expected of him. Having seen it time and again, the basketball world has come to believe that when the ball is in Kobe’s hands, it will eventually find its way through the net, and never a second too late. It’s a similar expectation bestowed upon game-winning luminaries of the past: Michael Jordan and Larry Bird.

And since expectations are such, that particular shot over Charlie Bell as time expired was, if you ask me, pretty ho-hum. A rather quotidian score that serves only as fluff for an already lengthy highlight reel.  (When you’ve accumulated enough game-winners and clutch shots to produce an eight-plus minute video, you’re on another level. And the video is from 2006. Here’s another, this one a seven-plus minute highlight of clutch Kobe circa 2007-09.) I figure that shot—which, let’s face it, will prove meaningless in the larger picture of the season—would be wedged somewhere in a YouTube montage’s beginning alongside preseason daggers and other clutch instances within the season’s first 82 games. It was nice, but not worthy of constructing monuments.

Then the internet blew up. Followed by the deathless prattle of sports radio and television.

Judging from all the talk engendered by that—I must emphasize once more—regular season shot against the Milwaukee Bucks, I would’ve guessed it ended a triple-overtime Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The populace was wild in debate. Everyone from Kobe Chauvinists to Kobe Despisers to Statistics Geeks to the venerable Skip Bayless himself came out of the woodwork and gave their two cents.

Most proved to be idiots.

The biggest of these idiots, however, were the stat enthusiasts. The Henry Abbotts and John Hollingers of the world, the box score-loving boobs who see situational field goal percentage as scripture and who eulogize the virtues of “offensive efficiency”—whatever that means—and create formulae in hope of finding truth in numbers.

And the numbers—or their numbers, I should say—don’t point to Kobe Bryant as who you’d want in the clutch. Far from it.

Check out these clutch stats. Clutch stats, as defined by 82games.com, being production in the “4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points.” Stat heads and Kobe haters alike point to clutch field goal percentage, in which Kobe ranks 91st at 45.7 percent. “That’s a lot of missed shots,” detractors say. “You sheep”—which I’m almost positive internet trolls would call any Kobe supporter—“only remember the attempts he makes, and forget all the clunkers.”

It’s hard to rebut these trolls, though, when looking at this chart. It indicates the most field goals made in the final 24 seconds of a one-possession game, since 2002-03.  Kobe comes in at third with 21 made shots, but brings it up the rear in field goal percentage.

Final 24 Seconds, One-Possession Game (since 2002-03)

Player	FG-FGA	FG%
LeBron James	23-47	48.9
Dirk Nowitzki	18-41	43.9
Vince Carter	22-70	31.4
Kobe Bryant	21-69	30.4

Again, this is the king of clutch?

But wait, there’s more.  This study.  Same definition of clutch situation, but this chart measures the esoteric True Shooting Percentage, which accounts for trips to the free-throw line. Kobe ranks 38th. And when stacked against the class of 2003, Kobe is still stuck looking upward.

Clutch Situation

Player	FG%	TS%
LeBron James	0.478	0.598
Carmelo Anthony	0.427	0.573
Dwyane Wade	0.439	0.558
Kobe Bryant	0.439	0.542

And for kicks, here’s one more.  It examines True Shooting Percentage in clutch situations in the last five postseasons, and in what they call “Ultra-Clutch” (!!!!) situations. Ultra-Clutch situations refer to the following conditions: “less than one minute to go and a scoring margin of three points or less.” Kobe, once more, doesn’t look so hot.

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It’s not often that I’m compelled to defend Kobe Bryant—never, almost—but the permittance of such mathematical sensationalism needs to end.

Let’s get one thing straight: Kobe Bryant is the NBA’s premier clutch performer. End of story. Roll the credits. Have a nice day. There’s no convincing me otherwise. I’ve heard all the arguments and seen the stats—I don’t care. Especially stats that say world-beaters like Ronnie Turiaf and Keyon Dooling are better options.

There is, I must admit, some truth in statistics.  But they can only bring you so far.  Past a certain point, they begin to deceive.  It’s believed in the universe of numbers, much like what is said in the realm of legal litigation, that it isn’t a lie if you can prove it. But statistics, like trial evidence, can be manipulated and prodded and twisted to prove anything. (Like this Maxim poll, which says Beyoncé is the 52nd hottest woman in the world. When we all know it’s a metaphysical constant that she holds the number one spot.)

So I say: view statistics with a big chunk of kosher salt.

Would you trust a formula that regards Mehmet Okur, Corey Maggette and Kyle Korver among the ten most clutch players in the league? Doing so is akin to trusting money with Bernie Madoff. Having Okur and Maggette and Korver in any top ten list immediately eliminates credence—unless it’s a list of has-beens, underachievers and never-weres. The architect of the True Shooting Percentage formula, once he saw Okur was number two, must’ve felt like the Schwab when he gets stumped—his only validation of life destroyed.

So as you can tell, I’m not a big statistics advocate. I am, however, a big fan of needless hypotheticals that illustrate a point.

Example:

Say the Yakuza break into my home, bag my head and take me to a basketball court somewhere in the heart of south Tokyo (I’m sure they’re basketball fans—who isn’t?). I owe a gambling debt, which I blindly squandered on LeBron’s Cavaliers in the 2009 playoffs. But these are a quasi-benevolent bunch of Japanese mafia, and they give me an out. Instead of an immediate beheading, they—being basketball fans and believers in chance—lay my fate in the hands of the NBA player of my choice.

The rules are simple: If the chosen player makes the shot, I live; he misses, and I become sashimi.

Right then and there, Hatori Hanzo blade indenting my neck, I’m picking Kobe. And I’m betting you would too.

In your heart of hearts, you know Kobe is the only logical choice. He’s proven it, and no one else has. Not LeBron, not Wade, not ‘Melo, Dirk or Ginobili—not the way Kobe has.  And they definitely don’t have his skillful game.  Not yet.

I’ve covered Kobe’s extensive arsenal before.  He’s got it all, combining the best attributes of the aforementioned performers and unsurpassed split-second judgment. Kobe’s virtuosity has earned my confidence under any permutation—double-teamed, hand-in-face, double-clutching, six seconds left, one second, broken finger—doesn’t matter, Kobe is getting his.

But the real kicker is Kobe’s intelligence. He knows when and to whom he should pass the ball.  It’s not just that Kobe has learned to trust his teammates, but that he’s learned to pass to players he trusts (i.e. Only to other clutch players and only in their sweet spots, like Derek Fisher on the perimeter and Pau Gasol in the post). Kobe not only knows his game, but the tendencies and strengths of his teammates. Which makes him the most dangerous man when the game is in balance.

But wait, knowing when and where to pass the ball? That sounds like LeBron, whom many mouth-breathing statistics apologists say is the league’s clutchest player.  Just look at his field goal percentage in clutch situations!

I, however, view LeBron in a slightly different light. Yes, he will pass to an open player, any open player, but he will do it for better or for worse.  He will do so because it’s the right basketball move—but common sense doesn’t always make the best decisions.  Textbook strategy says an open player has a higher chance of making a shot, therefore the ball-handler should pass it.  LeBron follows this rule religiously.  He’ll pass to, say, Donyell Marshall on a game-deciding possession against the Detroit Pistons in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals (video).  Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

But with my life on the line, I want a frozen-blooded killer on my side, not someone who plays by the rule book.

I doubt Kobe makes that play to Donyell Marshall, and I’m not sure I’d want him too. The ultra-clutch realize their status, or maybe it’s their unbridled murderous instinct, but they’re not giving up the game-winning possession unless the second option is close to a sure thing. Then again, Michael Jordan did pass to John Paxton and Steve Kerr, and Jordan was lauded for it. But Jordan and Kobe began as selfish players, mentally unable to pass up the final shot. That’s why them finally passing to trusted teammates was a sign of growth and eventual evolution into an all-around threat.

LeBron, on the other hand, doesn’t have that reputation. He’s a selfless player—perhaps too selfless. And the burden of turning selfish, developing that me-first killer instinct, is on him.  The greats can see and analyze variables on the court.  (e.g. That Paxton, Kerr and Fisher were/are proven performers in the waning seconds, far more reliable than Donyell Marshall.)  They understand the situation and can gauge how their teammates will handle it.  LeBron hasn’t learned to make this clutch calculation yet. Kobe has.

But what makes Kobe the wheat and everyone else the chaff isn’t just his analytical skill under stress; it’s that he isn’t afraid. He isn’t just confident he’ll make a shot; he’s assured of it. Confidence implies the possibility of failure—that doesn’t factor with Kobe; he knows it’s going in before the ball is released.  At this point, I doubt the pressure of balancing my life would rattle Kobe’s cool. His mental state has moved passed brazen confidence into calm assurance, into Jordan and Bird territory.

But how do you explain the stats?

I’ll say this: LeBron is probably better overall in crunch time—in the final five minutes. He always makes the correct play, whether it’s bulldozing towards the hoop to get a foul or passing to an undefended teammate. And Kobe does frequently turn over the ball or take and miss bad shots in the 4th quarter. Hell, others are probably more efficient even in the last minute, when one possession doesn’t decide the outcome, and there is time for amends. But no one, not anyone still playing in the NBA, is better than Kobe at the game’s event horizon, that point of no return: the final ten seconds.  Nobody embraces those moments like Kobe, and nobody comes through like him.  And there’s no one I trust more.

You can have LeBron and Wade. Give me Kobe.

Top Freshmen

By Chris Le

College basketball, for me, is about the freshmen.  It’s the kids—and I can’t overemphasize kids—so precocious that they leave a mark on the national stage.  It’s like witnessing a childhood Mozart fiddle with the piano or an adolescent Bobby Fischer pacing over a chessboard.  An eighteen-year-old who commands the college game at an All-American level is a glimpse into the future—the NBA future.

Some prospects are obvious stars, indulging in the formality of the NCAA one-year policy; others have dormant potential ready to be realized; and then there are the “left field” prospects—unrecruited, no-star rating—who make a name with four years of hardwood elbow grease.

Either way, it’s fun to witness.

But I’m no Miss Cleo.  I can’t foresee the ugly duckling turned swan three years down the road.  But I know a stud when I see one.  So here are the can’t miss prospects—the players who’ll make an immediate impact.  Here are the best freshmen in the nation.

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1. John Wall, PG, Kentucky – Wall needs to be seen, not described in words.  “He’s incredible with the ball.”  “He’s long, athletic, and possesses flair.”  Such platitudes are insufficient.  But I’m a writer, so when forced to use words this is how I best describe the freshman prodigy: Seeing him weave down the court, you forget that he’s dribbling a basketball.  What do I mean by this?  To start, Wall has never met anyone faster than him; his speed alone leaves you wondering how a basketball can keep up with him.  He runs and spins and cuts through crowds like Barry Sanders on the gridiron, and somehow never loses court vision or control of the ball or his body.  Get used to seeing him “Usain Bolt”-passed everyone and unleash southpaw tomahawk dunks or zip off-hand, wrap-around passes through traffic.  Oh, and did I mention he’s right-handed?  Ambidextrous to the max.

Wall, in short, will be a better freshman than both Tyreke Evans and Derrick Rose.  And he’s the best prospect I’ve seen since LeBron James.  Enough superlatives for you?  My only qualm is his predilection for mid-air passes.  Which is, naturally, a sign of his creativity and visual acuity, but could also result in turnovers.

That being said, Wall will lead a stacked Kentucky team to an NCAA championship appearance—just before he becomes the number one overall pick in the NBA draft.

This video is straight FILTHY:

NBA Comparison: Derrick Rose/Rajon Rondo

2. Derrick Favors, PF, Georgia Tech – How good is Favors?  He’s a better prospect than North Carolina’s Ed Davis, whose potential has every NBA scout up-tucking their woodies (Favors is a top-five lock, and maybe number two overall after Wall).  Favors may be, by midseason, the best post-player in the ACC, and he’s only a freshman.  Already equipped with a man’s body in a conference of young men, Favors could average a double-double adding two or three blocks for good measure.  Everything is there—a quick first and second jump to block or rebound, the strength to overpower at both ends and a latent mean streak. All he needs to be an All-American is a legitimate go-to move on the block.

NBA Comparison: Josh Smith/Amare Stoudemire

3. Avery Bradley, SG, Texas – Bradley is a rare commodity in high school recruiting.  He scores points in bunches, yes, and he can paint the ceiling during dunks.  But those qualities aren’t rare; there’s a Vince Carter clone in every recruiting class.  What differentiates Bradley—what has him looking more like an upperclassman than a frosh—is his developed mid-range jumper and his love for everything defensive.  In high school, these tools are left on the shelf to collect dust in favor of one-on-one skills and reverse slams.  Not so with Bradley.  He’s got the condor’s wingspan and necessary tenacity of a lock-down defender, and he’s bouncy and ballsy enough to swat much larger opponents, head on, Dwyane Wade-style.  And it seems he takes pride in making life miserable for the ball handler, as if he wants defense to be his hallmark.  Like I said, a rare commodity in freshmen basketball.  No one in this class goes harder, and because of that, Bradley has a chance to be special.

NBA Comparison: Defensive-minded Monta Ellis/Jerryd Bayless

4. Kenny Boynton, PG, Florida – Boynton is the best score-first point guard in the class.  Hold that—qualification isn’t needed; he’s the best scorer.  Period.  The physical qualities are obvious.  He’s strong enough to finish at the rim, skilled enough to execute the pull-up jumper.  But more than anything, I love his demeanor.  He carries himself like a scorer.  He dribbles down the court with an air of “I’m scoring and—you know and I know—there’s nothing you can do about it.”  I’m not a sports psychologists or Bill Simmons (who thinks he’s a sports psychologist), but Boynton has the look of being fearless in the clutch, heartless in closing out.  On a Florida team now without Nick Calathes and devoid of an offensive threat, Boynton, who has range like Tiger Woods, could lead all freshmen in scoring.

NBA Comparison: Allen Iverson

5. Lance Stephenson, SG, Cincinatti -  You may be thinking “Why Cincinatti?”  Why did a New York legend, who broke all state scoring records and earned a legit streetball nickname (“Born Ready”), choose Cincinatti over powerhouses North Carolina or Kentucky?  The answer: Because he has a Kanye-like sense of entitlement, and top-tier programs didn’t dare touch him.  This kid did, in fact, come from the same Lincoln High School as Stephon Marbury and Sebastian Telfair—uh oh.  But this is college ball, not the pros.  A selfish me-first scorer can lead a team to relatively high heights, especially if it’s a talent like Stephenson.  Selfish or not, the kid can play ball.  Well, “kid” is a misnomer seeing how he’s 6’5”, 210 with a deceptively quick first step.  He looks like a grown man, even if he has a child’s mentality.

NBA Comparison: Brandon Roy

Looking into the Crystal Basketball: 2010 NBA Predictions

By Chris Le

So you want to know about the NBA future?  This is what I see …

Rookie of the Year: Blake Griffin, Clippers.  It’s Griffin, somewhat by default.  This freshman class blows.  Griffin and Tyreke Evans and Jonny Flynn are the only rookies worthy of being in a starting five, and they might be the only rookies to make any impact whatsoever.  But Griffin, to his credit, is a peg above — a legitimate star among the first year sludge.  His turbo button is always at full tilt, whether it’s chasing a loose ball, boxing out or setting a pick.  He only knows one speed: all-out.  He probably goes to sleep flexing.  And with a workman’s mentality, even a klutz can make an impact (Mark Madsen made an unwarrantedly publicized career of it.)  But Griffin is also a freak athlete with burgeoning potential.  And he’s the only post scorer on an offensive-minded team, so expect big numbers (15 points, 10 rebounds per game) but with few wins.  That’s the price of being a Clipper.

Ballot: 1.) Blake Griffin, Clippers 2.) Tyreke Evans, Kings 3.) Jonny Flynn, Timberwolves 4.) James Harden, Thunder

Most Improved Player: Greg Oden, Trail Blazers.  Oden was my pick, last season, for rookie of the year.  I expected a 70’s era big man — ungraceful on offense, but swatting away 4 and pulling down 10 a night.  Who would’ve thought 4 would be his fouls per game average, and 10 the number of minutes until he doubles over from fatigue?  But I still expect the Oden I foresaw; my prediction was just a year off.  2010 will be his NBA cotillion.

Ballot: 1.) Greg Oden, Trailblazers 2.) Channing Frye, Suns 3.) Roy Hibbert, Pacers 4.) Anthony Randolph, Warriors 5.) Kwame Brown, Pistons (yes, you read correctly – Kwame Brown)

Sixth Man of the Year: Leandro Barbosa, Suns.  I’m sporting a big hard-on for the Suns.  Gone are the pesky back-to-basket big men who like to rebound and protect the rim.  Goodbyes were said to their best perimeter defenders.  Last year, Shaq and the half-court Suns felt forced, against nature.  Like Asher Roth trying to be a rapper.  This year will be different.  It’s back to the run-and-gun, baby.  And Amare Stoudemire, Channing Frye and sixth man Leandro Barbosa are ready to detonate on a lot of defenses.

Ballot: 1.) Leandro Barbosa, Suns 2.) Manu Ginobili, Spurs 3.) Rasheed Wallace, Celtics 4.) Lamar Odom, Lakers

Coach of the Year: Greg Popovich, Spurs.  Coach Pop wants to preserve his geriatric team for the postseason.  That means a bushel of DNP’s for Timmy, Manu, Finley and even McDyess, particularly in tail-ends of back-to-backs.  But that won’t result in more losses.  Popovich is the league’s Tony Robbins — a master of motivation, milking talent from a marginal player and knowing when to cap an overexerted and in the Spurs’ case, aging star.  Pop will jumble the starting lineup throughout the season, determining who mixes well with whom, to eventually finalize a steady playoff rotation.  But like I said, despite the lineup experiments and his studs occasionally wearing street clothes on the bench, the Spurs will be near the top.

Ballot: 1.) Gregg Popovich, Spurs 2.) Alvin Gentry, Suns 3.) Phil Jackson, Lakers 4.) Mike Brown, Cavaliers

Defensive Player of the Year: Ron Artest, Lakers.  With the intrigue of how his volatile psyche will adulterate/reinforce/mesh with the defending champs (not to mention the Los Angeles glamour), the national media spotlight will be fixed square on Artest’s forehead.  And, as any publicist will attest, media coverage = a free campaign.  He’ll be the most ballyhooed defender this season.  But there will be substance to match that ESPN flash.  The Lakers will relieve Kobe of work, reducing the wear on his tires.  Enter Artest, who, still a premier stalwart, will be assigned to defend the opponent’s best perimeter scorer.

Dwight Howard, the funnel-bottom of a top-three defense, sporting ample rebounds and blocks, is always a threat for the award.  But he’s a stats candidate.  It’s high time a man-to-man defender got the award.  Shane Battier, anyone?  I love him and his wrinkled head, but he won’t have the media love on a forgotten Houston Rockets team.  Additionally, his increased role on offense may diminish his on-ball performance.  Kevin Garnett is also a strong contender, but only if he can stay on the court.  And with his age, you can’t count on that.

Ballot: 1.) Ron Artest, Lakers 2.) Dwight Howard, Magic 3.) Shane Battier, Rockets 4.) Kevin Garnett, Celtics

Most Valuable Player: LeBron James, Cavaliers.  “Anyone but LeBron,” I told myself.  I tried to not give LeBron the award.  Predicting him is just too predictable.  I wanted to be avant-garde with at least one of my picks.  There has to be another contender, right?  Perhaps Kevin Durant from an uprising Thunder squad.  Not a bad choice.  “Dwyane Wade and Chris Paul will do most with the least,” I said, trying to convince myself.  And I’ve always thought Kobe Bryant is the most skilled player in the game.  But, with everything boiled down, I couldn’t shake the fact that Cleveland will most likely have the league’s best record, and LeBron will post somewhere in the precinct of 28-8-7.  It’s back-to-back for The King.

Ballot: 1.) LeBron James, Cavaliers 2.) Kobe Bryant, Lakers 3.) Chris Paul, Hornets 4.) Dwyane Wade, Heat

First Team All-Defense

G Dwyane Wade
G Shane Battier
F Ron Artest
F LeBron James
C Dwight Howard

First Team All-NBA

G Chris Paul
G Dwyane Wade
F Kobe Bryant
F LeBron James
C Dwight Howard

Eastern Conference

1. Cleveland Cavaliers
2. Boston Celtics
3. Orlando Magic
4. Atlanta Hawks
5. Washington Wizards
6. Chicago Bulls
7. Philadelphia 76ers
8. Miami Heat

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio Spurs
3. Portland Trail Blazers
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Dallas Mavericks
6. Phoenix Suns
7. Utah Jazz
8. New Orleans

East Champions: Boston Celtics
West Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

NBA Champions: Los Angeles Lakers

CFB: Week 7

By Chris Le

Power Rankings

1. Alabama – Looked mediocre for the first time.  But when mediocre results in beating a hardheaded South Carolina team by 14 points, with Mark Ingram running for 246 yards – uh, I think you’re pretty good.
2. Florida – Four fumbles.  The Gators were on their knees, pleading to lose against Arkansas.  But even great teams get lucky, and perhaps the Arkansas game will be the catalyst that engenders the Florida team we all forecasted.
3. USC – Number seven in the BCS rankings?  Eleven in the computers?!  Add that to the never-ending list of why the BCS sucks, and as the only reason computers suck.  With the ever precocious Matt Barkley nonchalantly throwing downfield, the Trojans are quickly erasing any  whiff of an Achilles heel.  Point to the Washington game — a game in which the Trojans played without Barkley, mind you — all you want.   I say: watch them today.  See how big and strong and fast and motivated they are at the present.  They’ll pass any eyeball test.  But unfortunately, last I checked, computers don’t have eyes.
4. Texas – Winning the Red River Rivalry is always cold-lemonade-on-a-hot-day satisfying.  But a victory over a Sam Bradford-less Sooners isn’t appreciable; this win won’t look better as the weeks go by.  And it’s hard to ignore the Longhorns’ infertile offense.  Good thing the defense likes to go Jack the Ripper on opponents, strangling them like they’re unsuspecting prostitutes.
5. Iowa – This year’s team of destiny.  No team is more opportunistic or more adept at making lemonade when football life gives them lemons (that’s two lemonade references in a 60-word span; must be a record).  No matter the circumstances, the Hawkeyes drag themselves through mud and on to victory.  And at the very least, their pluck is admirable.  But they’re a Big Ten team.  How good can they really be?  That’s not an intended knock on the conference; it’s an honest question.
6. Miami – The offensive line is porous and other positions frequently underperform.  But there’s talent on this Miami team.  It just has to be tapped.  Enter: Jacory Harris.  The kid is the truth.  He’s a type who can galvanize, with his words and his plays, an entire team.
7. Cincinnati – The 34-17 win over South Florida convinced me.  The Bearcats are legit, and so is Tony Pike.  But legitimacy doesn’t earn them an automatic BCS bowl birth, or even a win next week against Louisville, which may or may not be difficult with Pike on the sidelines.  It won’t.  Louisville is horrible.  But Pike better be 100 percent for West Virginia next month.
8. Boise State – The BCS has a love/hate relationship with the Men of the Blue Turf.  The computers underrate the Broncos when they’re deserving (ranked eighth in 2006 after a 12-0 season, and they go on to beat the Oklahoma Sooners in the memorable Fiesta Bowl).  But, currently, the computers have a hard-on for the Broncos and their shiny (but shallow) undefeated record.  The convoluted formula has the Broncos as the fourth-best team in the country.  But love is a fickle and cold-hearted bitch, and I see the computers backstabbing the Broncos at season’s end.
9. Oregon – Last week, I said it was possible to drop without losing.  Well, this week’s lesson is: you can rise without playing.  That’ll happen with a bye and three higher-ranked teams (Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Nebraska) losing.
10. TCU – The Horned Frogs probably feel a lot like the Little Engine That Could.  I think I can … I think I can – go undefeated.  Well, I think they won’t.  First of all, their mascot is a Horned Frog.  How menacing can that be?  I’m more intimidated that it’s a Christian school.  Secondly, they approach the steepest point of the mountain this week in the form of BYU.  The Frogs are getting licked.

Heisman Watch

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida – Holds on to the pole position, but only by his finger tips, and it’s slipping.  The Gators’ lack of a downfield threat is hurting both Tebow and his teams’ style points.
2. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame – Clausen was one play away from being the favorite.  Had Clausen come back (i.e. had his receiver not slip on the last play) and beaten the Trojans, it would’ve been the signature win of the season — the kind of win that seals the Heisman.
3. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama -  With Greg McElroy impersonating Terrelle Pryor, going full-retard and tossing two interceptions, Ingram almost single handedly beat South Carolina.  Ingram has piled up 558 rushing yards the last three games.
4. Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati – He would’ve jumped to two or three, but his injury against South Florida might hurt his stock as much as his wrist.
5. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas – McCoy has now thrown seven interceptions and at least one in every game.  But he wins.  And winning not only gets the chicks, but it’s also the most important part of the formula.
6. Jacory Harris, QB, Miami – Harris has that “it”-factor.  Other than Tebow, Harris is the only player who imposes his will.  He’ll do anything — interceptions be damned — to lift his team.

CFB: Week 6

By Chris Le

After six weeks of collegiate football, it seems as if no one wants to win the Heisman.  Expected excellence has given way to inconsistency, and for the preseason favorites, Tim Tebow and Sam Bradford, injuries have been the highest hurdle.

All of it has made for a schizophrenic season, with its fluctuations mirroring the volatile stock market.  Up one day, down the next.  And this capriciousness begins with the players.  Colt McCoy, perhaps feeling the weight of so many preseason selections, has committed nearly as many interceptions, this year, (6 in five games) as he did in all of last (8).  And former front-runner Jahvid Best had all the pundits raving after scoring five touchdowns one week, but then goose egged it the next two in losing efforts, all but eliminating his candidacy.

The yearly race for the Heisman has turned into a battle of attrition.  But it shouldn’t be this way.  In the average fan’s ideal situation, someone steps up, differentiating themselves with plays, and takes the trophy by the legs.  It shouldn’t have to be handed to the least of five evils.  But with the way this season is shaping up, it’ll be awarded to the last man standing, and not the man on top.  Whether it’s a bum shoulder or the heaviness of hype, no one has strung together consecutive vote-worthy showings.

And, coincidentally, this year’s Heisman race, an individual contest, has been reflective of the overall landscape of team football.  Top squads, much like the top players, are faltering every week, and are plummeting in both the Heisman and AP polls.  Houston quarterback, Case Keenum, was once a dark horse contender, but a single bad performance compounded by a loss, and now he, like his Houston team, will never reach a top five ranking.  And with the aforementioned Jahvid Best, as he goes, so do the Cal Bears, and they’re both currently headed toward the undesirable recesses of the underachieving, which isn’t too far from the harsh habitat of the overrated.

But it’s not that these players are ill-equipped or unworthy of the Heisman.  They’ve just been victims of this football season’s overriding theme — defense — which explains the mercurial performances of so many leading contenders.  That’s why I find this erratic offensive play so fitting.

The Heisman race historically has been the providence of quarterbacks and halfbacks — football’s offensive stars.  But in the college game, this year, the headlines have been stolen by the collective defenses.  Scoring 50 points is so yesterday’s news.  Holding teams under 15 is what’s en vogue.

To better understand just gander at the polls.  The alpha programs — Florida, Alabama, Texas, Virginia Tech, USC — and even this year’s cinderella, TCU, are all in the top ten because of defense.  You could go as far as to say those teams are ranked where they are in spite of their quarterbacks.  Colt McCoy, Tyrod Taylor and Matt Barkley, all of whom are mistake prone this year, have all been put in favorable situations, if not outright saved, by their defenses.  Even my top Heisman candidate, Tim Tebow, has been overshadowed by his defense.

It just hasn’t been a Heisman-y type of year.  And in keeping with season’s theme, it’d be nice to see a defensive player hoist the trophy.  But that won’t happen.

Heisman Watch

1.  Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
2.  Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
3.  Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
4.  Jacoby Harris, QB, Miami
5.  Tony Pike, QB, Cincinatti

Power Rankings

1.  Alabama – The Crimson Tide’s recipe for success: One part bulldozing rushing game, two parts immovable defense, and a pinch of competent quarterbacking.  Mmm.  Tastes like a BCS championship.
2.  Florida – Beat LSU in Baton Rouge, at night, with a conservative Tim Tebow.  That sounds like  a hallmark victory.  And yet questions remain, particularly of their receivers.  Can the Gators compete in a shoot-out if needed?  But at any rate, the Tebow legend continues to burgeon forth (despite an average yet intangible-filled performance) and Florida’s path toward the SEC championship is now as smooth as the greens of Augusta.
3.  Virginia Tech – The Hokies defense is legit perennially, and we’ve all heard the praises of “Beamer Ball” with that ball-sniffing special teams.  But Tyrod Taylor is beginning to connect the dots as a passer, adding to the Hokies game plan a years long missing component.  He doesn’t throw much, because freshman running back Ryan Williams is bearing the load, but Taylor’s improved arm has made the Hokies the top one-loss team.
4.  Texas – The Longhorns enter the toughest stretch of their schedule (Oklahoma, at Missouri, at Oklahoma State).  High stakes games.  Dominant victories and they could leapfrog Virginia Tech.  Good numbers and Colt McCoy jumps in the Heisman polls.
5.  USC – The offense receives a much needed shot of adrenaline with the return of wideout Ronald Johnson, the Trojan’s biggest downfield threat.  They’ll need more than the 22.0 points they’ve averaged the past four games if they want to beat Notre Dame’s prolific passing game.
6.  Iowa – The Hawkeyes just find ways to win.  All their games have been close, sometimes ugly, but resolve and perseverance can carry a team a long way — especially with a defense like that.
7.  Miami – In preseason, I looked at their schedule and feared the worst.  Another dreadful season, I thought.  But winning three of their first four games, all of which against ranked teams, is proof that the Hurricanes’ production is catching up to its immense talent.  Their potential is no longer latent; it’s realized.
8.  Ohio State – The Navy game, in which the Buckeyes gave up 27 points, was an aberration.  Opponents quickly realize that it’s really, really hard to score against this defense.  Ohio States’ weakness?  Terrelle Pryor.  Dude is sucking balls.  Against Wisconsin the preseason Big Ten player of the year threw for one touchdown, one INT, and 87 yards on 5 of 13.  And he’s only ran for three touchdowns so far, light years behind pace of my projected 15.  Still, I love the D-line and they’re still my pick to win the conference.
9.  Boise State - Lesson #3435 in polls: It’s possible to drop without losing.  The football season is a marathon not a sprint, and though Boise State’s inaugural win over Oregon was cute, subsequent performances against UC Davis and Bowling Green weren’t enough to fend off the major conference hounds.
10. Cincinnati – “Tony Pike to Mardy Gilyard for a touchdown” has been an oft repeated phrase, seven times in five games to be exact.  In case you didn’t know, that leads the nation in touchdown receptions.  But I’m still not completely sold.  Thursday night’s meeting against (21) South Florida should erase or justify my skepticism.

CFB: Week 4

By Chris Le

In the hit of the weekend, Tim Tebow was skewered in a 41-7 Florida victory over Kentucky.

In an initial moment of sadism, my overriding sentiment wasn’t concern for Tebow, who lay motionless for several minutes, but deep satisfaction.  Never do I wish for injury though.  It wasn’t the fact that Tebow got clocked that I enjoyed; that aspect of the equation is inconsequential.  But I felt satisfaction seeing the already legendary Tebow brought down from his pedestal — like seeing the straight-A prom king pee his pants, or in this case like seeing the heartbroken reaction of the hot girls who fawn over him.  I acknowledge the apparent injustice to Tebow himself, as he’s done nothing but represent his university and his family with class and integrity.  But my beef isn’t with Tebow.  It’s with the media infatuation and the fervent Tebow apologists who grate me.  From looping replays of “The Pledge” to the fan-perpetuated catalog of Tebow-isms (“Superman wears Tim Tebow pajamas.”), I suffered from Tim Tebow-fatigue.  So ubiquitous were the hyperboles that, in a backfiring self-fulfilling prophecy, fans began to buy into his infallibility and immortality.  Their admiration turned into hubris.

But seeing Tebow lying half-conscious for what seemed an eternity, and with the cameras cutting to crestfallen Gator fans, hand over mouth, hoping for a sign of capacity, they now realize he is human after all — that the season is long and that the BCS Championship will not be handed to them.  It was pure sobriety.

Florida fans, however, weren’t the only ones to have a moment of clarity.  Perhaps it was the media blitz saturated with the Florida QB, but I’m starting to drink the Tebow Kool-Aid.  I always agreed that Tebow is one of the greatest — that is, one of the most decorated — players in college football history.  No one can deny the National Championships, the Heisman, or the gaudy stats (73 passing touchdowns, 48 rushing — just eye-opening).  That I never doubted.  What I questioned, however, was his skill.  Sure, he was accomplished, but would you pick him over the 2005 Vince Young, or the ’82 Herschel Walker, or O.J. Simpson in ’68?  If you asked me last year, I would’ve answered with a resounding, Hell no!

But the more I see Tebow on the field, as a passer and as the biggest short-yardage threat ever, and more importantly in the huddle and locker room, where you can almost physically see Tebow instill his will in teammates, I’m beginning to see Tebow in a different light.  “He’s just a system quarterback,” they say.  I say, “Who cares?”  I’m beginning to see Tebow as a transcendent talent and not just a workman who’s big on intangibles and short on ability.  If you ask me, he’s got a surfeit of both.

The look on Gator Nation with Tebow flat on his back said it all.  A team that possesses a championship defense, which returned all 22 players; an offense that fumes NFL talent and speed; a team with a backup quarterback, John Brantley, who some say is the third best pure passer in the SEC and the conference’s next great player — they all thought their season was gone with Tebow.  Even with all the remaining talent and a top coach, everything — Florida’s feeling of invincibility, their big dick mentality, their championship aspirations — hinged on Tebow.  I can’t think of a player who brings more physical skill and permeating mental toughness than this real life Superman.

–

Power Rankings

1. Alabama — Playing how everyone expected Florida to play.
2. Florida – Will Tebow be back in time for a nighttime road trip to LSU on October 10?
3. Virginia Tech — Proved Miami was a tease.  VaTech is the real class of the ACC.
4. Texas – Haven’t been overly impressive; I’m talking overall as a team and, surprisingly, of Colt McCoy’s play.
5. Boise State — The Oregon victory looks better each week.  They’re going undefeated.  Book it.
6. LSU — Sloppy.  Team isn’t gelling, but they have potential to turn the BCS on its head against Florida, who will possibly be Tebow-less.
7. Houston — Victories over Oklahoma State and Texas Tech were huge attention grabbers.  But the season will tell if the Cowboys and Red Raiders suck or not, rendering the wins impressive or ultimately meaningless.
8. TCU — Their stout defense could lead them to a BCS bowl.
9. Cincinnati — Same as above, but replace “defense” with “passing game.”
10. Oklahoma — Pummeled poor Idaho State and Tulsa without Sam Bradford.  Will they need him against Miami?

Heisman Watch

1. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida — His to lose.  There’s a chasm between the one and two spot.
2. Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame — Finally living up to his high school hype, performing like the best passer in the nation with 10 touchdowns to only one interception.
3. Colt McCoy, QB, Texas — Got out of his funk against UTEP, throwing 3 scores on 80 percent passing.
4. Case Keenum, QB, Houston — 366 passing yards against Oklahoma State, 435 against Texas Tech, but more importantly, both came in victories.
5. Jahvid Best, RB, California — Hit a real snag against Oregon, running for a mere 55 yards on 16 carries.  The supposed best running back in the nation shouldn’t be locked down like that — not to mention, the supposed sixth-best team in the nation shouldn’t be drubbed 42-3.
6. Tate Forcier, QB, Michigan – Premature?  Maybe.  And I’m expecting a stumble any week now.  Every true freshman sooner or later begins to look like a freshman.  But that moment has yet to come for Forcier.  What he has done so far grants Heisman consideration.
7. Who cares?  No one I haven’t already mentioned will be in New York at season’s end.  I must, however, give a shout out to Eric Berry — by far the best defensive player in the country.  And, please, if there was a debate between Berry and USC’s Taylor Mays, it’s over now.  Mays is a physical freak and will post video game stats at the NFL combine, but he makes coverage mistakes where Berry would make highlights.  But Berry won’t win it playing safety.

College Football, 2009 Edition

Team Rankings

1. Florida – Do I really need to explain?  Probably not, but too bad.  Bear with me.  Florida has seven players with legitimate arguments for being the best in the nation at their respective positions.  Read that sentence one more time and really soak it in.  Seven players, each perhaps the best in the nation.  I’m not talking All-Conference consideration; I’m talking All-American consideration, and Florida has seven of them.

Tim Tebow at quarterback
Carlos Dunlap at defensive end
Brandon Spikes at linebacker
Joe Haden at cornerback
Janoris Jenkins at cornerback
Anthony Hernandez at tight end
Brandon James at special teams returner

The remaining roster seems to be filled with All-SEC candidates, 4.3 speedsters, and freak athletes, all of whom are experienced; the dominant ’08 defense, which was the pothole to the prolific Oklahoma offense’s Ferrari, returns every single starter.  This team is more loaded than a baked potato.  And did I mention they have one of the best coaches in the country in Urban Meyer?  But if that weren’t enough, their road towards Pasadena is painted with gold.  Without having to face Alabama or Ole Miss, Florida’s schedule is as comfortable as can be expected in the SEC.  But be wary of October 10, Gator fans, when Florida travels to LSU for a night game.  After a lackluster ’08 campaign, the Tigers are gearing for a big season.  However, Florida has a bye just before, giving Urban Meyer two weeks to prepare for anything Les Miles has to offer.  I don’t expect Florida to lose, and if I were so brazen, I might even say they won’t be challenged in the regular season.

2. Texas – Colt McCoy may be the most indispensable player in the country.  No one, including Tim Tebow, does more for his team.  But this year, expect his running back committee to step up.  Them doing so would not only add another dimension opposing defenses must account for but would save McCoy from having to run so much himself.  So expect big passing numbers.  Wideout Quan Cosby will be missed, but that just gives opportunity to sophomore Malcolm Williams, a big and speedy receiver, who should emerge as a deep threat.

The schedule is manageable, not quite as daunting as last season’s slate.  Though away games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma and especially Oklahoma State would worry even the most faithful, the Longhorns begin the season against comfy non-conference foes.  And Texas should be relieved to find Texas Tech and Oklahoma not as formidable as last year, and Oklahoma State’s explosive offense should be mitigated just enough by a defense led by senior DE Sergio Kindle, who will do his best Brian Orakpo impression.  A possible trap game comes late when Kansas comes into Austin.  Big things are expected of the Longhorns.  I believe they’ll meet these expectations.

3. USC – The Southern Cal roster has more collective talent than any team in the country, even Florida.  I’d give you a quarter for every three-star recruit you find on the first-team, and you wouldn’t have enough to eat off the McDonald’s Value Menu; USC is all four- and five-star blue chippers.  But as highly regarded as they are, many are under-experienced and unproven.  Matt Barkley will take the snaps as an 18-year-old, and as should be expected from a true freshman, especially a true freshman quarterback, mistakes will be made.  And an entirely new linebacker corp will be introduced.

History shows that the Trojans will trip up somewhere in conference play, and this year, they might stumble twice or thrice.  Their schedule is brutal, with perhaps the toughest non-conference games of any title contender (at Ohio State, at Notre Dame) and the conference lineup isn’t much of a rest either (at Cal, at Oregon, finishing off against improved Stanford, UCLA and Arizona).

Cal and perhaps Oregon will be breathing down USC’s neck in the conference race, but the Trojans will once more be Pac-10 champions.  I can’t see any other team winning it.  Not while Pete Carroll is coaching USC.  They boast the best offensive line and secondary (hello, Taylor Mays) in the country.  Their famed stable of running backs will relieve Barkley of pressure and defensive attention, and look out for Joe McKnight, now fully healthy, to finally have his breakout season.  What about the linebackers, you ask.  The faces may be new to the common fan, but they all have game experience, some even with starting experience.  And though they aren’t as rugged and punishing as the Maualuga-Cushing-Matthews triumvirate, coaches assure the current crop is faster and keener to creating turnovers.  Still, as history dictates, one Pac-10 loss will keep them from hoisting the crystal football.

Pryor: "Hey, Colt. Let's touch heads." McCoy: "Oh, you meant that head."

4. Ohio State – As a true freshman Terrelle Pryor flashed Vince Young-level running ability, but for all the talk of rawness, he also displayed an adequate throwing game (1,311 yards with 12 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, hitting 60.6 percent of throws).  With one year of games under his belt, I’m expecting a second-year improvement similar to what was seen in Tim Tebow.  That means immediate control of every facet of the offense: 25 passing touchdowns, plus 15 more on the ground.  He’s my dark horse for the Heisman.

The defensive line is deep and talented, particularly at the ends, and should be tops in the Big Ten.  But green linebackers attempting to replace James Laurinitis and Marcus Freeman will require an adjustment period.  Overall, however, this is a formidable defense.

Dare I say, I can see an undefeated regular season … if the Buckeyes get past USC.  That’s a big if, but not a huge one, considering USC must break in a new quarterback and an overhauled defense, not to mention the game is at the Horseshoe.  If USC quarterback Matt Barkley plays like his true freshman status, committing two or three costly turnovers, expect the Buckeyes to squeak by the Trojans and then run the table the rest of their schedule.

5. Oklahoma – Sam Bradford is the nation’s purest passer — 4,720 yards, 50 touchdowns (!) to 8 interceptions, on 67.9 percent passing — and because of this, he sits atop most NFL big boards.  But I don’t envision Bradford being as prolific with Oklahoma breaking the seal on a new offensive line.  Trent Williams is a stud at tackle, an All-American, but he alone can’t protect the quarterback.  In 2008, Bradford was untouchable behind an experienced line, possibly the best in college, allowing him ample time to dissect any coverage.  He won’t have that luxury this year.  And say goodbye to Bradford’s most reliable receiver, tight end Jermaine Gresham, who went down with a knee injury.

But, boy, are they talented.  The Sooners boast four, possibly five, future first-round draftees:

QB Sam Bradford
DT Gerald McCoy
TE Jermaine Gresham
OL Trent Williams
RB DeMarco Murray

And there are a slew of four-star prospects at every position.

With one of the best backfields in the nation and a murderous defensive line headlined by Gerald McCoy, I would normally have them in title contention.  But the schedule, laden with mines, just won’t allow it.  The season starts at home against BYU, a game the Sooners could lose, then away games at Miami, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, and finishing against volatile Oklahoma State in Norman.  The rough terrain in addition to the new O-line doesn’t foresee a good future.  My guess: 11-2 with losses to Texas and Oklahoma State, and a third place finish in the Big 12.

6. Oklahoma State – Spread, spread, spread.  Talent, talent, talent.  The Cowboys run a high-gear spread offense, which also atypically boasts production from the halfbacks.  With quarterback Zac Robinson, tailback Kendall Hunter and wideout Dez Bryant — perhaps the best scoring trio in the nation — Oklahoma State won’t often be kept below 45 points.  And there may not be a better tackle than senior Russell Okung.

Ultimately, no matter their drop-jaw offense, Oklahoma State’s success will depend on their experienced but unspectacular defenders.  They’ll be tested right off the bat against Georgia, setting the tone for the rest of their season.  With all but one tough game (versus Oklahoma) at home, however, the Cowboys will be in position to make national noise.

7. Alabama – Gone are competent quarterback John Parker Wilson, running back Glen Coffee and stud lineman Andre Smith.  Yikes.  Good thing they have the scariest defense this side of Gainesville.  Eight defensive starters return, most notably All-American nose tackle Terrence Cody and junior linebacker Rolando McClain.  I see no discernible weak spot on this front.

The Tide will miss this.

On the other side of the ball, Greg McElroy has only twenty career passes, but ‘Bama coaches are confident that his IQ and mental toughness will prove him to be a solid game manager.  And All-Nation wideout Julio Jones, CFB’s version of Calvin Johnson, may be the easiest target in the SEC.  Throw it anywhere in his vicinity, and there’s a good chance he scores.

The schedule needs to be tip-toed, as it’s daunting.  The first game is against ACC favorite Virginia Tech and with their usually stout defense, I expect the new Alabama line to struggle, eventually losing.  And conference games at Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Auburn and home games against South Carolina, Lane Kiffin’s Tennessee and LSU are difficult to navigate.  But I love that defense.  And, with apologies to Urban Meyer, Nick Saban is my choice for best coach in the SEC.  The Tide should take the SEC West once again.

8. LSU – After a disappointing 8-5 (3-5 in the SEC) season, the Tigers, this year, have the form of national contenders.  Charles Scott should be a finalist for the Doak Walker, which is awarded to the country’s best running back.  And a bundle of true freshman are waiting to make an instant impact.  Receiver Rueben Randle, the number-two overall prospect in last year’s class, and quarterback (sometimes wideout) Russell Shepard are too dynamic to warm the bench.

Quarterback Jordan Jefferson is serviceable, but Shepard could make a few cameos, if he doesn’t take the starting role outright.

As usual, LSU faces little challenge in non-conference play.  But with that SEC schedule, a lot of Tiger fans have slumped shoulders and bowed heads.  Away games at Alabama and Ole Miss would worry even the best of teams.  Speaking of which, LSU must also face Florida, Auburn, Arkansas and Georgia in Athens.

9. Penn State – QB Daryll Clark could be in the Heisman conversation if Penn State gets by Ohio State.  Not only that, they could have the inside track to the BCS championship.  That’s the beauty of playing in the Big Ten.  If you’re Penn State or Ohio State, you need only worry about the other.  Illinois and Michigan State are, come on, Illinois and Michigan State.  They never step up when needed.  Michigan is on the rise, but they had nowhere to go but up.  That leaves Ohio State and Penn State, both of whom can finish unscathed.  And an undefeated Big Ten team, despite the conference’s ailing prestige, will not be kept out of the championship game, unless an SEC and a Big 12 team go undefeated — which won’t happen.

Clark is possibly the conference’s best pure passer, and the fact that he’s a duel threat is icing on the cake.  The backfield is strong, but the receivers are depleted as well as the defensive secondary.  All other positions appear strong.

The fact that Ohio State comes to Happy Valley is a huge plus.  And traveling to Illinois, Michigan and Michigan State is a mere nuisance, not a backbreaker.

10. California – Jahvid Best is CFB’s Albert Pujols, a home run threat every time he suits up.  But quarterback Kevin Riley needs to show consistency and must learn how to not lose games.  That’s it.  No need to throw it deep or thread the needle.  His job is to check passes to the backs, hand it off to Best and not throw interceptions.  If Riley can do just that, and his receivers make a leap, the Bears will threaten USC for the conference title.  Cal returns one of the conference’s top secondaries, which had 24 goddamn interceptions in 2008.  Cornerback Syd’Quan Thompson is the Pac 10’s best.

11. Ole Miss
12. Georgia
13. Virginia Tech
14. Boise State
15. Georgia Tech

–

Predictions

Irish Resurgence

Notre Dame will go 10-2.  I want to be bold and say 11-1, but I don’t trust Charlie Weis or that sparse D-line.  The offense, aside from the running back position, is stacked.  Their passing game should make them look like a Big-12 team.  A lot of pundits are sporting wood over Jimmy Clausen, and with the threat of Golden Tate and Michael Floyd, perhaps the most formidable group of receivers in football, Clausen will be in the Heisman hunt.  But, Jimmy, whatever happens this year, please cut your hair.

Clausen (far right) is a Heisman contender

Impact Freshmen

Matt Barkley, QB, USC: A quick study with pure mechanics and enough zip to perform all necessary throws, Barkley not only has the look of a first-string quarterback but a future number-one draft pick.  The size (6’3”, 230 pounds) and talent are there; Coach Pete Carroll has noted that neither John David Booty, Mark Sanchez nor Matt Leinart, the latter two being former first-round draftees, were as developed as Barkley at such a young age.  But it isn’t Barkley’s rocket arm or knowledge of the playbook alone that won the nation’s most glamorous position.  Barkley carries himself with aplomb and has a work ethic that garnered respect the moment he stepped onto campus last spring.  Already, as an 18-year-old, he commands the huddle, and upperclassmen take his orders without qualm.  He’s Tom Brady in cardinal and gold.  Barkley may or may not lead USC to a national title this year, but I guarantee he will in the future.

Manti Te’o, LB, Notre Dame — When it comes to football, Notre Dame doesn’t often beat USC.  But last winter, Coach Charlie Weis and company snatched presumed USC commit Manti Te’o (not to mention once-USC verbal commit WR Shaquelle Evans) from the Trojans’ grasp, with Weis snubbing his nose all the while.  The coup was a double-victory, not only adding to the Notre Dame roster a top shelf recruit on defense, which the Irish have lacked in recent years, but grating Pete Carroll in the process, robbing the Trojans of a body on their depleted linebacker depth chart.  Te’o’s nose for the ball and physicality might’ve earned him a starting spot on the vaunted USC defense as a true freshman, which is in itself unfathomable, but it also means the super recruit should already be a stalwart on an underwhelming Irish defense.  On the open field, he’s a sure tackler, a heat-seeking missile and he batters foes with the equivalent force — a true anchor around which a defense can build.  But Te’o has been hampered by injury this summer.  Still, he’s too talented to keep off the field.

Vontaze Burfict, LB, ASU — Speaking of supposed USC commits, it is believed Burfict would be wearing cardinal and gold were it not for his academics.  USC or not, however, Burfict’s grades are still haunting him, as he and ASU await his approval by the NCAA Clearing House.  If Burfict clears, he’ll make an immediate impact on the ASU defense, and not to mention on helpless receivers who dare come down the middle.  Burfict’s collisions are imprinted on opponents like a Southern grandmother’s discipline.  In other words, Burfict hits really, really hard.  But violent as his blows are, his greatest strength may be his coverage skills.  From what I’ve seen of Burfict in camp videos, he’s got the recovery speed and instincts to defend the pass, making him an invaluable three-down backer.  There aren’t many weaknesses in Burfict’s body or his game.

Hi, I'm special.

Heisman Winner: Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

Improved running back production will take away some of McCoy’s numbers.  Will diminished rushing yards and touchdowns hurt McCoy’s Heisman chances?  My magic eight ball says no.  McCoy has enough ability as a passer to win on his arm alone.  In 2008, he ranked third nationally in quarterback rating (173.8) for 3,869 yards, with 34 touchdowns to only 8 interceptions, and an eye-bulging pass completion of 76.7 percent.

Ballot: 1. Colt McCoy 2. Tim Tebow 3. Terrelle Pryor 4. Zac Robinson 5. Jimmy Clausen

Damn, year of the quarterback, part II.

BCS Championship: Florida over Texas.

Florida makes it three BCS championships in four years.  Urban Meyer is recognized as the best coach in the country.  Florida is lauded as the team of the decade.  Tim Tebow becomes the greatest player ever.

Usain Bolt: World’s Most Dominant Athlete?

By Chris Le

Another race, another world record.

On Sunday, at the Track and Field World Championships in Berlin, Usain Bolt pistol-whipped the 100-meter field, breaking the finish line in a world-record 9.58 seconds.

If you’re unfamiliar with track and field or if you’re the average, Customary System-loving Yankee who can’t quantify 100 meters and the idea of traversing such a distance in 9.58 seconds can’t register in your head, check this: Bolt ran, considering acceleration, at the average speed of 23.35 miles per hour and approached a top speed of 28 miles per hour.  That makes Bolt the fastest biped in the world that’s not an ostrich or kangaroo (which can reach a hopping speed near 44 miles per hour).

But it’s not just the speed at which he travels that amazes, it’s also his atypical body for a sprinter.  Past record holders hover around six feet: Tyson Gay, 5’11; Maurice Green, 5’9; Donovan Bailey, 6’0.  Bolt, who measures at six feet, five inches, one hundred ninety pounds, and endowed with the fastest of fast-twitch musculature, moves in ways a man his size shouldn’t be capable of.  Watching Bolt run, you begin to think that if there is a God, he was generous the day he created Bolt.

No other human comes close.  In the finals, to Bolt’s right ran Gay and Asafa Powell — holders of the next two fastest 100-meter times ever — and yet Bolt instantly eliminated any notions of contention.  Gay and Powell ran the race of their careers, and all they received in return was a feature in Bolt’s highlight reel.  No other athlete makes his craft seem so effortless.  Which naturally leads to the question: Who is the world’s best?

The only possible candidates for Most Dominant Athlete are Michael Phelps, Roger Federer, Manny Pacquiao, Tiger Woods, and of course, Usain.

But do any of them compare to the Lightning Bolt?

Take the Olympics.  Bolt so comfortably distanced himself from the field that he pulled up after 70 meters, jogged the last thirty and still broke the world record.  And this was in the Olympic Finals.  No other athlete has the ability and, most tellingly, the cajones to be so brazenly confident.

Michael Phelps can’t afford the luxury of decelerating to gaze back at his competitors on the final leg of a meet.  Roger Federer isn’t so assured as to cede a set, knowing he’ll win the next two (though, granted, he’s cocksure enough to make a jacket stitched with the number fifteen, before winning his fifteenth major).  I’ll make out with Emmanuelle Chriqui before Manny Pacquiao plays defensive and surrenders the championship rounds, thinking he has the previous nine in the bag.  And Tiger Woods — well, given his year and his recent withering at the PGA Championship, I think it’s safe to say Woods is out of the running … until next year.

I'm more likely to show her my 'O' face.

Only Pacquiao and Phelps can challenge Bolt for the title.

Since a late career metamorphosis, aided by trainer Freddie Roach, Pacquiao has sent back all challengers regretful, and usually in a heap on the canvas.  Entering boxing at flyweight (106 pounds) and being most comfortable at featherweight (126 pounds), Pacquiao has risen as far as welterweight (147 pounds) to face all comers, most recently against Ricky Hatton (KO 2), and most famously opposite Oscar De La Hoya (TKO 8).

Pacquiao is the best boxer in the world.  But I say that with a little hesitation, and that little hiccup is typically brought about by the recently retired and un-retired Floyd Mayweather, who not too long ago held Pacquiao’s pound-for-pound crown.

There’s no such pause when discussing today’s greatest runner.  The answer is immediately Usain Bolt.  Whether it’s sprinting or long distance, there’s no better track athlete.

But it can be argued that Michael Phelps, swimming wonder and out-of-pool douche, has the upper hand against Bolt.  Unlike Bolt, Phelps has mastered a wider range of strokes (butterfly, freestyle, medley) and distances (100-, 200-, 400-meter), amassing 14 Olympic gold medals and six world records.

Because of his range and overall dominance, I’m going with Phelps.

What say you?