Five Impact Freshmen

By Chris Le

College recruiters have been spoiled the past two years. I’m talking Paris Hilton, My Super Sweet 16 spoiled. In 2007, college basketball witnessed the dominance of Kevin Durant, Greg Oden and Mike Conley, the latter two who may be question marks now in the NBA but played like the next coming of Bill Russell and Chris Paul in college. That first year corps—which also included Thaddeus Young, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, and Brook Lopez—looked like it wouldn’t be topped…until the very next year. The 2008 season welcomed an even deeper and more productive freshman class of Michael Beasley, Derrick Rose, OJ Mayo, Jerryd Bayless and Kevin Love (all one-and-dones), and budding superstars Blake Griffin, Austin Daye and Kyle Singler.

Compared to the past two classes, this year—like the economy—is experiencing a recession. Don’t expect the incoming crop to feature any All-American candidates, let alone the Player of the Year. Even the number of proverbial unpolished physical freaks (e.g. Anthony Randolph, Brandon Wright) is low, as only a handful of prospects are validly considered NBA-ready, or even look to possess the potential.

Granted, it might be a little unfair to compare any freshman class to the previous two. And it’s not to say that they’ll lack production. It’s just that these frosh are a little underwhelming.

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Al-Farouq Aminu, SF/PF, Wake Forest – My favorite to win Freshman of the Year honors. I love this kid’s versatility. At 6’9”, 215 (with a 7’2” wingspan and upside to spare), Aminu will be all over the court. He can score from deep, off the dribble or in traffic—and he does it all smoothly and efficiently. I’ve been impressed since the second I saw him dominate against national powerhouse Helen Cox, outshining then top-ranked senior in the country Greg Monroe. Aminu heads possibly the nation’s top recruiting class and should make Wake Forest a serious player in the ACC. Needs to improve his strength and defensive consistency. Video Evidence. NBA Comparison: A more athletic Luol Deng.

Jrue Holiday, PG/SG, UCLA – The most polished and ready to contribute freshman in the country. His basketball IQ is as high as you’ll find in an 18-year-old. Offensive skills are highly developed and can score in a myriad of ways, whether to the rack or pulling up, but truly excels in the open court. Not sure about his point abilities, but with All-American floor general Darren Collison still running the offense, Holiday won’t have to worry about that. Video Evidence. NBA Comparison: Poor man’s Dwyane Wade.

Demar DeRozan, SG, USC – No O.J. Mayo? Not a problem. Meet Demar Derozan, the most explosive player to come out of high school in years. His hops are on par with that of the best NBAers. This kid from Compton can straight up jump out of the gym. Of course, having relied on his springs and quickness his whole life, he needs to improve his perimeter game and his left-hand handles. But he’ll be a dominant force right away just with his freakish athleticism. Figures to be a top-5 draft pick. Video Evidence. NBA Comparison: Vince Carter.

Tyreke Evans, SG, Memphis – Evans, touted as the top player in his class since he was in junior high, has the requisite swagger and lack of conscience needed in a go-to scorer. And if Evans is anything, he’s a scorer…probably the best in this group of freshmen. Possessing top-notch body awareness, NBA-range and an extremely natural yet cerebral feel for the game, Evans makes for amazing scoring exhibitions and makes it look sickeningly easy. He won’t offset the loss of Rose and Christopher Douglas-Roberts but cushions the blow. Not as extraordinary on the defensive end. Won’t be as effective if he’s forced to play the point guard position. Video Evidence. NBA comparison: A smaller Tracy McGrady.

BJ Mullens, C, Ohio State – The Buckeyes tried to replace Oden with Kosta Koufos in 2008. That didn’t pan out as expected, but they’re getting closer with Mullens, who does just about everything well. He’s a legit 7-footer who can run the court, shoot and finish around the rim. That’s why he’s Rivals.com’s No. 1 prospect. Mullen’s potential, perhaps more than any other freshman, is through the roof. Needs to develop a mean streak, and though he’s enormously well-rounded, he’s not exceptional at any one aspect. Video Evidence. NBA Comparison: A more athletic Andrew Bogut.

I’m not so excited about…

Greg Monroe, PF/C, Georgetown – Ranked the 8^th best prospect in the nation by both Rivals.com and Scouts.com. At 6’11, 254, he’s got the frame and strength to be a handful in the paint, especially as a rebounder. In high school, though, he wasn’t very keen of the low-block, almost shying away from it. When I saw him play, with his team down, he lacked intensity and didn’t demand the ball in crunch time.  His face-up game and handles are nice, but he’s not exceptionally fast or athletic. I expect Monroe to struggle a bit. Video Evidence. NBA Comparison: Stronger but less athletic LaMarcus Aldridge.

USC’s Success on the Recruiting Trail Hurting Their BCS Chances

By Chris Le

Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports wrote an interesting piece arguing that Pete Carroll’s utter dominance in the recruiting game, particularly on the West Coast (Pac-10 country), is coming back to haunt his Trojans in the BCS rankings.

It sounds backwards at first. But Wetzel might be on to something here.

With one top signing class after another, it’s evident that Carroll has his pick of any recruit, not just in talent-rich southern California, but in the entire country. And from their perspective, considering what the program offers, it’s difficult to turn down a scholarship from USC. Here’s what the rest of the Pac-10 has to compete against: an NFL factory that has the glitz, glamour and media coverage of a professional team, excellent academics, elite facilities, perfect weather, and the coolest head coach in the land.

Ask anyone who has been or is currently being courted by Southern Cal, and they’ll all say the same thing: it’s hard as hell not to like Coach Carroll. Parents can’t help but be caught up in his charm and good looks, and recruits love his ability to be laid back, yet still be all about winning at the highest level. What’s more mind-boggling, despite already having a roster loaded with NFL prospects—some positions run 3 or 4 deep—he somehow convinces recruits into thinking they have a shot at playing right away as true freshmen. It’s just the magic of Pete Carroll and the prestige of the empire that is USC football.

But with Coach Carroll bogarting all of the 4- and 5-star recruits, is he partially to blame for the decline of the Pac-10? Had some of USC’s talent gone elsewhere, would the conference fare better today against the SEC or Big 12 or even the Mountain West?

Imagine if All-American safety Taylor Mays decided to stay close to home and join the Huskies instead of the Trojans. The combination of Mays and Jake Locker, two foundations for each side of the ball, wouldn’t be too shabby. Washington’s secondary wouldn’t be so atrocious and perhaps Tyrone Willingham wouldn’t be out of a job at the end of the season. (The latter might be overdoing it, but you never know.)

Or if RB Allen Bradford and Marcy Tyler, who was thinking of going to his father’s alma mater before ultimately going with USC, chose to attend UCLA. Not a bad running back tandem, right?

Or if OL Kristofer O’Dowd and DE Everson Griffen, two of the highest-rated prospects to ever come out of the Grand Canyon State, signed with Arizona or Arizona State. I’m sure ASU quarterback Rudy Carpenter, who moonlights as a sack dummy during games, wouldn’t mind having O’Dowd anchor the O-line.

Or if RB C.J. Gable matriculated to Cal. The Bears were major players in the Gable sweepstakes and had him seemingly within their grasps—until Carroll did his voodoo that he does and added Gable to a class that already featured Stafon Johnson, Emmanuel Moody and Stanley Havili. The thought of C.J. Gable and Jahvid Best in the backfield is like looking at, well, the current USC backfield of Joe McKnight (LSU fans are still pissed that he’s a Trojan) and Johnson.

Or if All-Conference safety Kevin Ellison wanted to play with his brother, Keith, at Oregon State.

The list goes on and on.

If Carroll wasn’t so selfish maybe the Pac-10 wouldn’t be so weak, and (since we know the Trojans can never go undefeated, always tripping up somewhere during the season against a vastly inferior opponent) USC’s strength of schedule would be strong enough to compete with that of Texas, Oklahoma, LSU and Florida.

But, like with any “what if” scenario ever presented, there’s a flip side to that coin. Pete Carroll’s players are only as good as they are because of the culture of competition fostered within their program. Fear of losing your starting spot (or better yet, actually losing it) is major motivation—just ask former first string D-linemen Averell Spicer and Everson Griffen. That vital competition would lose some of its edge or be completely gone if there wasn’t a hoard of talent around.

Would USC be as awe-inspiring and dominant without their stockpile of blue chip players?  Maybe they would. And perhaps the rest of the Pac-10, if they had their chance with elite recruits, would still stink.

But either way, Pete Carroll will still continue to sign every damn 5-star prospect he can find.